Infrastructure, trade openness, and territorial development in Morocco: A Time Series Analysis (1970–2023)

Résumé

Abstract

Infrastructure is widely regarded as a key driver of trade openness, particularly in developing economies where high transport and transaction costs constrain external integration. Global empirical evidence confirms that modern infrastructure reduces trade barriers, improves competitiveness, and facilitates participation in global value chains. Yet the magnitude and durability of this effect often vary across countries. In Morocco, infrastructure has been at the center of development strategies since the 1990s, with large-scale projects such as the Tangier Med port, highway expansion, and high-speed rail, alongside progressive trade liberalization through WTO membership and multiple free trade agreements. Despite these efforts, it remains unclear to what extent infrastructure development has effectively translated into greater trade openness. This study addresses that question by analyzing the relationship between infrastructure investment and Morocco’s trade openness over the period 1970-2023. Using annual data from the World Bank and employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to capture both short- and long-run dynamics. Trade openness is measured as the trade-to- GDP ratio, with gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as the proxy for infrastructure, and GDP growth and FDI as control variables. The results show that infrastructure investment has a positive and significant effect on trade openness in the short run, but no evidence of a stable long-run relationship is found. These findings partially validate the research hypothesis and suggest that infrastructure alone is insufficient to sustain openness without complementary policies such as trade facilitation, institutional reforms, and regional integration.

Keywords : Trade openness, territorial development, infrastructure, Morocco, ARDL model.