Dating Moroccan Business Cycle.

Résumé

Abstract

This article examines methods for extracting and dating the Moroccan business cycle, emphasizing their importance for the formulation of economic stabilization policies. It compares the result of three filters—Hodrick-Prescott (HP), double HP, and Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF)— in extracting the cyclical component of Morocco's quarterly GDP data from 1998 to 2023. The CF filter is found more effective in identifying expansion and recession phases via the BBQ algorithm. The study reveals thirteen peak-to-peak and twelve trough-to-trough cycles, with recession phases being longer and more volatile than expansion phases. These findings underscore the need for targeted strategies to mitigate recession impacts and promote economic stability.

Keywords : Moroccan Business Cycle, Business Cycle extraction, Business Cycle dating, CF filter, BBQ algorithm,